Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The June S&P 500 bounced +0.21% on Monday to settle @ 7416.00. Hedgeye’s risk range coming into Monday’s session was 7681 at the top and 7356 at the bottom (red lines on the chart above). Option dealer gamma flipped back into slightly POSITIVE territory as of Monday’s close. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically BUY weakness and SEL strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook The S&P 500 tech sector recovered roughly a third of Friday’s drop. Despite Monday’s bounce, there is still some fragility in terms of market structure. Another volatile day could trigger more selling from systematic strategies and a drop back into negative gamma would force option dealers to sell weakness as well. For now, bulls still have the upper hand, but not by much. Interesting dates to mark on your calendar include: • June 10 – May CPI report, another hot inflation report could exacerbate rate hike fears • June 10 – EIA weekly energy inventory data • June 12 – SpaceX IPO looks to raise $75 billion for a $1.5T to $2.0T valuation. Do other securities need to be sold to make room for SpaceX shares? According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are saying that the most likely date for a rate hike (odds > 50%) is no sooner than the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The June S&P 500 plunged -2.64% on Friday to settle @ 7400.50. Hedgeye’s risk range coming into Friday’s session was 7669 at the top and 7469 at the bottom (red lines on the chart above). There are three volatility regimes: 1) the investible bucket (VIX < 19), 2) the chop bucket, (VIX = > 19 and < 29), and 3) the F-bucket (VIX > 29). The VIX finished Friday’s session near 20.83. Option dealer gamma flipped into NEGATIVE mode as of Friday’s close. When option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically SELL weakness and BUY strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook Bulls hit the panic button on Friday after much stronger than expected jobs data raised Fed rate hike expectations. Rate markets are saying that there is now a greater than 50% chance that the Fed hikes rates by the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. A rate hike is far from a sure thing, but a stronger than expected jobs report (and positive revisions to prior months) was Friday’s catalyst for the sell-off. The S&P 500 tech sector fell a whopping -6.73%! Still, 5 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the day in the green. Friday’s plunge was the S&P 500’s first drop of more than -2% in 94 days. Even more surprising is that the S&P 500 finished in negative gamma territory for the first time since mid-April. This means that we should expect a greater than 1% move up or down in coming sessions. According to Tier1 Alpha estimates, vol control funds were likely sellers of roughly $20 billion in S&P 500 exposure on Friday, and that likely contributed to Friday’s weak finish. We don’t know about CTAs, but they were near their max long allocation coming into Friday and those strategies tend to start selling at the first sign of smoke. With the VIX out of the investible bucket and in the chop bucket, the S&P 500 is in a fragile position. A further drop on Monday would likely trigger simultaneous selling by vol control funds, CTAs and option dealers. Interesting dates to mark on your calendar include: • June 10 – May CPI report, another hot inflation report could exacerbate rate hike fears • June 12 – SpaceX IPO looks to raise $75 billion for a $1.5T to $2.0T valuation. Do other securities need to be sold to make room for SpaceX shares? According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are saying that the most likely date for a rate hike (odds > 50%) is no sooner than the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The June S&P 500 added +0.39% on Thursday to settle @ 7601.00. Hedgeye’s risk range on Thursday’s session was 7669 at the top and 7482 at the bottom (red lines on the chart above). Option dealer gamma remains in positive mode as of Thursday’s close. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically BUY weakness and SELL strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook A pullback in energy prices took some pressure off of the S&P 500 on Thursday. President Trump is tiptoeing around Iran, trying to end the war and more importantly, re-open the Strait of Hormuz. With a re-opening timeline that could still be months away, we think energy markets are sleepwalking into an energy crisis as soon as this summer. In fact, oil industry pundits are pointing to the July 1 timeframe as to when energy markets start hitting operational tank bottoms. Interesting dates to mark on your calendar include: • June 10 – May CPI report, another hot inflation report could pull forward rate hike expectations • June 12 – SpaceX IPO looks to raise $75 billion for a $1.5T to $2.0T valuation. Do other securities need to be sold to make room for SpaceX shares? According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are saying that the most likely date for a rate hike (odds > 50%) is no sooner than the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting.