Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The September S&P 500 added +0.63% on Friday, settling @ 7519.25. Hedgeye’s risk range for the Sept. futures contract coming into Friday’s session was 7572 at the top and 7350 at the bottom (red lines on the chart above). For the S&P 500, there are three volatility regimes: 1) the bullish investible bucket (VIX < 19), 2) the chop bucket, (VIX = > 19 and < 29), and 3) the bearish F-bucket (VIX > 29). The VIX finished Friday’s session near 15.99. Option dealer gamma flipped back to POSITIVE mode as of Friday’s close. Recall that when option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically BUY weakness and SELL strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook Friday’s month-end markup resulted in a mixed finish with larg-cap indices in the green and the small-cap Russell 2000 finishing in the red. Oddly, the tech-driven Nasdaq 100 added +0.43% on Friday while the S&P 500 tech sector lost -0.32%. Systematic strategies (CTAs and Vol Control funds) are starting to sell. So if the S&P 500 slides again in the first week of August, systematic flows will likely add fuel to the fire. Treasury yields are now at pre-GFC (2007) levels, and that is a growing cause for concern for US equity markets. Below is a monthly chart of 30-Year Treasury Bond futures. As bond futures drop, yields go up. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing a 65.1% chance that the FOMC hikes rates on September 16, 2026.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The September S&P 500 rocketed +1.65% on Thursday, settling @ 7472.50. Hedgeye’s risk range for the Sept. futures contract coming into Thursday’s session was 7497 at the top and 7301 at the bottom. For the S&P 500, there are three volatility regimes: 1) the bullish investible bucket (VIX < 19), 2) the chop bucket, (VIX = > 19 and < 29), and 3) the bearish F-bucket (VIX > 29). The VIX finished Thursday’s session near 17.15. Option dealer gamma remains in NEGATIVE mode as of Thursday’s close. Recall that when option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically SELL weakness and BUY strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook Despite a stellar tech-driven rally on Thursday, 6 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the day in the red. The S&P 500 remains in negative gamma despite Thursday’s rally. The good news for bulls is that the VIX fell back below 19. On the other hand, CTAs started selling on Thursday, so if the S&P 500 slides again in the first week of August, CTAs will likely be sellers. In summary, Wednesday and Thursday’s big moves (down and up) is classic negative gamma behavior. As a result, it is too early to call a bottom in US equites based on Thursday’s oversold rally. The S&P 500 remains in negatve gamma, so renewed weakness would likely be joined by selling from option dealers and CTAs. Rising treasury yields and the risk of higher energy prices are potential negatives for US equities as well. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing a 65.4% chance that the FOMC hikes rates on September 16, 2026.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The September S&P 500 sank -1.53% on Wednesday, settling @ 7351.25. Hedgeye’s risk range for the Sept. futures contract coming into Wednesday’s session was 7585 at the top and 7392 at the bottom (red lines on the chart above). The VIX finished Wednesday’s session near 20.26. Market Outlook Option dealer gamma remains in NEGATIVE mode as of Wednesday’s close. Recall that when option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically SELL weakness and BUY strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. The S&P 500 tech sector continued its bearish trend on Wednesday. However, a +6.8% jump in oil prices and a sharp jump in bond yields after the FOMC announcement greased the skids for a down day in 9 of 11 S&P 500 sectors. Naturally, the energy sector was the outperformer. Ahead of the FOMC announcement, the S&P 500 traded down before bouncing back into the green in the wake of the FOMC announcement (the FOMC kept the federal funds rate unchanged). However, the last hour of trading was straight down into the closing bell (ahead of MSFT and META earnings). We will wait and see what Tier1 Alpha has to say tomorrow morning, but it could be that CTAs are finally starting to sell their near max long equity position (long S&P 500 futures). With VIX firmly in the chop bucket, the S&P 500 finds itself in a very weak position. As of this writing in after-hours trading, MSFT shares are trading up +2% while META shares are down -6.25%. • Thursday o AAPL & AMZN report after the closing bell • Friday o XOM & CVX report after the closing bell According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing a 55.9% chance that the FOMC hikes rates on September 16, 2026.