Daily Comments

China’s Q1 GDP jumped +18.3% (slightly less than expected). Their March retail sales were up +34.2% (more than expected) and industrial production climbed +14.1% (less than expected). Asian markets were higher. The Nikkei 225 was up +0.14% and the Shanghai Composite rose +0.81%. European markets found a lot of support. The DAX index added +1.34%. 10-year bunds now yield -0.265%. March Housing Starts at 1.739M and Building Permits at 1.766M were strong and above expectations. Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment printed at 86.5 vs 89.0 consensus. Baker-Hughes reported that the U.S. oil rig count for 04/10 is up by 7, at 439. The yield on 10-year Notes is 1.597%. The June US$ Index slid -0.10% to 91.530. June crude oil lost -0.54% to $63.17. June gold jumped +0.51% to $1,775.90. Bitcoin and Coinbase sold off, partly due to Turkey banning cryptocurrency payments. Morgan Stanley posted better than expected Q1 results, but also revealed a $900M loss related to Archegos Capital. The ES once again closed at an ATH, as did the YM and NQ. However, smaller cap shares didn’t go along for the ride, with the RTY lagging.


On the whole, Asian markets were mixed. The Nikkei 225 crept up +0.07% and the Shanghai Composite fell -0.52%. European markets strengthened. The DAX index added +0.30%. 10-year bunds yield -0.296%. Initial Claims for 04/10 shrank to a pandemic low, but a still high 576K. February Business Inventories printed at 0.5%, on target with estimates. March Retail Sales jumped +9.8% (ex-vehicles +8.4%), Industrial Production came in at 1.4% vs. 2.8% consensus, and Capacity Utilization was 74.4% vs. 75.7% expected. The April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index eased slightly to 50.2, the Empire State Manufacturing Index grew to 26.3, and the NAHB Housing Market Index posted at 83, on track with consensus. The Biden admin is issuing sanctions against Russia. The yield on 10-year Notes is 1.56%. The June US$ Index fell -0.04% to 91.635. May crude oil gained +0.32% to $63.35. April gold rocketed +1.73% to $1,764.90. Shares of COIN rebounded today, and Bitcoin prices remain near highs. In the overnight, the ES was up to another ATH. Many financials have reported positive earnings results. Alongside seemingly positive economic data, the ES, YM and NQ closed at ATHs.


Asian markets were mostly higher as traders bided their time, awaiting the beginning of Q1 earnings in the U.S. The Nikkei 225 fell -0.44% but the Shanghai Composite rebounded +0.60%. In Europe many indices were up, but the DAX index faded -0.17%. 10-year bunds yield -0.256%. For 04/10, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell another -3.7%. EIA Crude Inventories declined by -5.9M bbls vs. forecasts of -2.9M bbls. March Import Prices rose +1.2% (+0.9% expected), up +6.9% YoY, and Export Prices jumped +2.1% (+1.0% expected), up +9.1% YoY. These are the largest gains in a decade. The Fed’s Beige Book for April reported that the U.S. economy has accelerated to a “moderate pace.” The yield on 10-year Notes is 1.634%. The June US$ Index dipped -0.23% to 91.635. May crude oil soared +4.59% to $62.94. April gold lost -0.64% to $1,735.00. Alongside the IPO of Coinbase, Bitcoin hit another ATH. Fed Chair Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Washington, saying the Fed will repeat its M.O. from 2013/14 and taper assets purchases before any rate hikes. The major financials of JPM, WFC and GS all reported profits. The ES hit an intraday ATH, but was negative by the close.