As expected, the PBOC cut the one- and five-year loan rates, but by a larger amount than anticipated. Asian markets were mixed. The Nikkei 225 slipped -0.07% while the Shanghai Composite rose +0.20%. European markets were red. The DAX Index lost -1.00%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.289%. September Leading Indicators went from -0.2% down to -0.5%, worse than the -0.3% expected. 10-Year Notes yields are at their highest since July, gaining +10 bps to 4.183%,. The December US$ Index gained +0.47% to 103.834. November Crude Oil sank -8.0% last week, and today it bounced +1.9% to $70.56. December Gold initially soared to an all-time high of $2,755.40 but pared gains to end +0.3% higher at $2,738.90. Bitcoin in the last 24 hours fell -1.15% to $67,691. Over the weekend BA resolved a union battle, with shares closing higher today by +3.0%. Also, a Hezbollah guided drone attacked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s home, adding further odds of an Israeli retaliation since Iran’s latest missile attacks. Dallas Fed Pres. Logan said the economy is strong, and there are upside risks to inflation. The 2024 U.S. fiscal deficit ballooned beyond expectations to -$1.8T. In the overnight session major U.S. stock indexes retreated. The ES opened near even but soon sold off. The NQ managed a positive close.

China Q3 GDP slipped to +4.6%, but that was above expectations. Retail sales and industrial production for September beat estimates while housing prices sagged. Asian markets were mostly higher. The Nikkei 225 was up +0.18% and the Shanghai Composite rebounded to rise +2.91%. European markets printed mixed results. The DAX Index gained +0.38%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.191%. September Housing Starts printed lower by -0.5%, with Permits down -2.9%. For the week of 10/12 Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. rig count fell by 1 to 585. 10-Year Note yields slipped to 4.079%. The December US$ Index lost -0.32% to 103.320. November Crude Oil sank -2.07% to $69.21. December Gold hit another record high, gaining +1.0% to $2,734.60. December silver soared +6.5% to $33.82. In the overnight session, shares of Netflix beat Q3 estimates and surged +10% to an all-time high, and this buoyed the NQ and ES ahead of the opening bell. Fed officials Bostic, Kashkari and Waller spoke this morning. There were $1.9T in options expiring today. After the regular session began large cap indexes trended upwards, never giving bears an opening. The ES ended just a fraction away from a new record high, the RTY however was negative.

In China, the housing ministry’s briefing underwhelmed, and property stocks fell sharply. The Nikkei 225 lost -0.69% and the Shanghai Composite fell -1.05%. The ECB cut rates 25 bps as expected. The DAX Index rallied +0.77%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.216%. For the week of 10/12 Initial Claims fell from 260K to 241K vs. 260K consensus, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories fell -2.2M bbls. August Business Inventories rose +0.3% as expected. September Retail Sales printed at +0.4% vs. +0.3% expected (ex-vehicles +0.5% vs. +0.1% expected) on the back of the largest positive seasonal adjustment ever (unadjusted Retail Sales sank -7.5% MoM). The October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index soared from 1.7 prior to 10.3 vs. estimates of 3.0, the NAHB Home Builders Index was 43, just above 42 estimated. September Industrial Production fell from +0.8% prior to -0.3% vs. -0.1% consensus. 10-Year Notes yield 4.093%. The December US$ Index increased +0.2% to 103.610. November Crude Oil bounced +0.4% to $70.67. December Gold gained +0.6% to a record $2,707.60. After-hours trading saw large cap U.S. stock index futures contracts rallying on the back of strength in SMCI. Chicago Fed Pres. Austan Goolsbee spoke today. Israel confirmed the death of Hamas leader Sinwar. Stocks rallied early but pared gains with the ES and NQ ending near even.