Pres. Trump hailed “big progress” with Japanese trade talks, as well as productive meetings with Mexico. The Shanghai added +0.13%, the Hang Seng +1.61% and the Nikkei 225 gained +1.35%. The ECB cuts rates for the 7th straight time. The DAX fell -0.49%, the Stoxx 600 fell -0.13%, the FTSE 100 was flat. 10-year Bunds yield 2.473%. March Housing Starts sank from 1.501M annualized to 1.324M (most since covid) vs. 1.420M est. Permits went from 1.456M to 1.482M vs. 1.450M est. For the week of 4/12 Jobless Claims retreated from 223K to 215K, below 225K est. The April Philly Fed Mfg. Index plunged from 12.5 to -26.4 (lowest in 2 yrs), well below 6.7 est., with New Orders sinking to their lowest since 4/20, and Prices Paid at the highest since 7/22. 10-Yr T-Note yields are 4.330%. The June US$ index was near even at 99.145. May crude oil jumped +2.87% to $64.26 (U.S. vows to reduce Iran’s energy exports to 0). June gold dipped -0.36% off record highs, ending at $3,330.00 (inverse US$ 90-day correlation is -0.86.) UHC plunged -20% and weighed early on the DJIA. Pres. Trump said Fed Chair Powell’s termination can’t come fast enough (see Looking Ahead). The Trump admin said his comments re Powell were not threats to fire him and stocks bounced into positive ground. However, gains soon faded and ES and NQ ended near even.

The U.S. imposed export restrictions on NVDA’s AI chips to China. Bloomberg reports that China is willing to enter trade talks with the U.S. Japan’s chief trade negotiator is visiting the U.S. this week. The Shanghai added +0.26%, the Hang Seng fell -1.91% and the Nikkei 225 slumped -1.01%. The DAX gained +0.27%, the Stoxx 600 fell -0.19%, the FTSE 100 added +0.32%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.514%. For the week of 4/11, the MBA Mortgage Apps Composite Index plunged from +20.0% prior to -8.5%. March Retail Sales improved from +0.2% to +1.4% (26 mo. high) as est. (ex-vehicles went from +0.3% to +0.5%). March Industrial Prod. sank from +0.7% prior to -0.3% vs. -0.2% est. (mfg. accounts for 3/4ths of the total production and gained +0.3% for a 5th consecutive mo.). Feb. Bus. Inventories fell from +0.3% to +0.2%. The Apr. Housing Market Index ticked up from 39 to 40, vs. 38 est. 10-Yr T-Note yields are 4.285%. The June US$ index retreated -0.84% to 99.125. May crude oil jumped +2.35% to $62.77. June gold gained +3.60% to a record high $3,357.50 (inverse US$ 90-day correlation is -0.86. Semi’s dragged indexes lower after hours. Weakness continued after the open. After Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is patient re rate cuts, prices sold off harder (see Looking Ahead), with the ES and NQ ending deeply negative.

China continues to stabilize its stock and financial markets, with its “plunge protection team” (the “National Team”) buying record amounts of ETFs, along with currency intervention (selling US dollars to buy yuan), (see Looking Ahead). The Shanghai added +0.15%, the Hang Seng 0.23%, and the Nikkei 225 added +0.84%. As negotiations continue, the US is maintaining a 10% EU tariff (down from 20%) for 90 days. Luxury conglomerate LVMH Q1 earnings showed negative revenue growth. The DAX gained +1.43%, the Stoxx 600 +1.63%, the FTSE 100 +1.41%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.536%. April Empire St. Mfg. Index went from -20 to -8.1, vs. est. of -10.0 (expectations sank to their lowest since 9/11). March Import Prices fell -0.1% vs. 0.0% est., Export Prices were 0.0% vs. +0.1% est. 10-Yr T-Note yields are 4.339% (still up 41 bp since Apr. 4!). The June US$ index rebounded +0.52% to 99.910 (off -7.7% in 3-mos.). May crude oil was nearly flat at 61.51. June gold gained +0.64% to close at $3,246.80 (up +19.7% in 3-mos.). BACs Q1 earnings saw record equity trading revenues (budgeting four rate cuts in 2025). AMD is ready to start production for its 1st ever made-in-America semiconductor chips. U.S. stock index futures opened than ran upwards, but gains were fleeting. By the close, the ES was red.