As expected, the PBOC left its key benchmark lending rates unchanged. Japan exports and imports for October beat expectations. The Nikkei 225 lost -0.16% while the Shanghai Composite added +0.66%. European markets closed negative. The DAX Index fell -0.29%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.354%. For the week of 11/16 the MBA Mortgage Applications Index was up from +0.5% prior to +1.7%, EIA Crude Inventories declined from 2.1M to 0.5M. The November Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations was unchanged at +2.2%. 10-Year Notes yield 4.416%. The December US$ Index gained +0.45% to 106.620. December Crude Oil slid -0.78% to $68.85. December Gold jumped +0.89% to $2,654.30. Bitcoin surged to an ATH of $94,962. Today’s $16B 20-year T-Bond auction was weak, with the yield rising to 4.680%. Ahead of the open Target’s Q3 earnings missed and its stock sank -20%, and U.S. stock index futures ticked higher on reports that Putin is open to ceasefire talks with Trump. However, Ukraine’s armed forces fired U.K. Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia as retaliation for Russia deploying N. Korean troops vs. Ukraine. Stock indexes then pulled back ahead of the open and stayed red until a last-hour surge put them near even. After the close NVDA’s Q3 results beat expectations yet the stock initially dipped lower.

China’s Vice Premier pledged measures to boost Hong Kong’s global competitiveness. Asian markets were higher. The Nikkei 225 rebounded +0.51% and the Shanghai Composite rose +0.67%. European markets were negative. The DAX Index slid -0.67%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.345%. October Housing Starts came is at 1.311M (vs. 1.354M prior and 1.3M est.) and Building Permits were 1.416M (vs. 1.428M prior and above 1.4M est.) with both near covid-era lows. 10-Year Notes yield 4.378%. The December US$ Index fell -0.06% to 106.135. December Crude Oil edged up +0.3% to $69.39. December Gold popped +0.73% to $2,633.70. Today was the 1st day of options trading on the Bitcoin ETF IBIT. WMT’s Q3 earnings beat estimates across the board, and they raised guidance for the 3rd consecutive time, with shares up +4%. A UN report said Iran agreed to halt uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, long range missile systems supplied and controlled by NATO, and also using U.S. satellites, sent ATACMS missile strikes deep into west Russian territory (see Looking Ahead). On the news of the missile strikes into Russia, global equity markets initially took a step backwards. Soon after the opening bell U.S. equities began to shake off the news and claw their way out of negative territory. Markets dismissed the “nuclear” headlines and major indices closed solidly positive.

Asian markets were mixed as traders wait for reports on Chinese interest rates and Japanese trade and inflation data later in the week. The Nikkei 225 fell -1.09% and the Shanghai Composite was down -0.21%. European markets were mixed. The DAX Index slid -0.11%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.375%. The November NAHB Home Builders’ Index went from 43 prior up to 46, beating expectations of 43. 10-Year Notes yield 4.413%. The December US$ Index sank -0.40% to 106.185. December Crude Oil surged +3.0% to $69.04. December Gold rebounded +1.7% to $2,614.0 The Biden administration has reportedly given the go ahead to allow Ukraine to target inside Russia with US-supplied long-range missiles (see Looking Ahead). On the domestic political from, President-elect Trump continues with his cabinet picks, with the key post of Treasury Secretary still unknown, with two speculative to candidates being Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is now suggesting an overweight stance on U.S. equities, raising the year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,500, with 7,400 also a possibility. Overnight, U.S. stock index futures traded upwards and after the open they rallied further. By the close the ES and NQ remained modestly higher.