Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (> 30 and < 70). Technical Review The December S&P 500 added +0.58% on Wednesday, settling @ 7800.25. The top end of Hedgeye’s risk range coming into Wednesday’s session was 7892 while the bottom of Hedgeye’s risk range was 7658 (red lines on the chart above). The VIX finished Wednesday’s session at 16.62. Option dealer gamma flipped back into in positive territory as of Wednesday’s close (the gamma flip line is in blue on the daily chart above). When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically BUY weakness and SELL strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. When option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically SELL weakness and BUY strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook As of this writing, TSLA and META are trading higher immediately following their earnings release. Next week we hear from GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, XOM and CHV. War drums are beating again as we approach the November 3 US midterm election. French and British troops have deployed to Saudi Arabia and the US has ordered its Middle Eastern embassies to be evacuated. Meanwhile, oil prices are bubbling just below the $100 per barrel mark. If the Iran war heats up in the weeks ahead, higher oil prices will certainly increase risk for bulls. On the other hand, there are signs that the Ukraine/Russia war may be in its final stages. We shall see. Market tops tend to be processes, and our best guess is that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are now going through a topping process. We still have a little more than two months remaining in 2026. However, Hedgeye’s macro forecast for 2027 is bearish for the first half of 2027. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing a 14.9% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 25 bps at its October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (> 30 and < 70). Technical Review The December S&P 500 gained +0.27% on Tuesday, settling @ 7755.25. The top end of Hedgeye’s risk range coming into Tuesday’s session was 7912 while the bottom of Hedgeye’s risk range was 7656 (red lines on the chart above). The VIX finished Tuesday’s session at 17.46. Option dealer gamma remains in negative territory as of Tuesday’s close (the gamma flip line is in blue on the daily chart above). When option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically SELL weakness and BUY strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically BUY weakness and SELL strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook If anyone stock is likely to dictate the future trend in the S&P 500, it is likely NVDA, the nerve center of the AI bubble. Market tops tend to be processes, and our best guess is that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are now going through a topping process. We still have a little more than two months remaining in 2026. However, Hedgeye’s macro forecast for 2027 is bearish for the first half of 2027 with lots of monthly Quad 4s. If you need a primer on the Hedgeye process and an explanation of the Hedgeye GIP (Growth Inflation Policy) Quad model, CLICK HERE for a 14-minute video tutorial. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing a 17.2% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 25 bps at its October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (> 30 and < 70). Technical Review The December S&P 500 bounced +0.39% on Monday, settling @ 7734.50. The top end of Hedgeye’s risk range coming into Monday’s session was 7897 while the bottom of Hedgeye’s risk range was 7660 (red lines on the chart above). The VIX finished Monday’s session at 18.44. Option dealer gamma finished in negative territory as of Monday’s close (the gamma flip line is in blue on the daily chart above). When option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically SELL weakness and BUY strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically BUY weakness and SELL strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook US equity markets may be looking ahead to earnings from META and TSLA after Wednesday’s closing bell. This Wednesday may be the appetizer ahead of the last week of October which features earnings from GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, XOM, CHV and an FOMC announcement. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing a 17.2% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 25 bps at its October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting.