Asian markets were mostly lower. The Shanghai index lost -1.3%, the Hang Seng sank -2.2%, and the Nikkei 225 (Japanese core inflation went from 3.2% to 3.0% in February) fell -0.2%. This week the Swiss Natl. Bank cut by 25 bps to 0.25% as expected. Germany is voting on a giant fiscal stimulus package. Today the DAX lost -0.47%, the Stoxx 600 fell -0.60%, the FTSE 100 retreated -0.63%. 10-year Bund yields are 2.768%. There were no major economic reports today. For the week of 3/21 the Baker Huges Rig Count for North America went from 791 prior to 773. 10-year T-Notes yield 4.258%. The June US$ index increased +0.35% to 103.160. May crude oil quietly added +0.32% to $68.29. April gold pulled back -0.51% to $3,028.40. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin ended fractionally higher at $84,145. Natural Gas prices in Europe spiked after a Ukrainian attack on a Russian gas pumping station. The U.S. is sanctioning a Chinese energy refiner due to its links to Iran. NY Fed Pres. John Williams spoke (see Looking Ahead). Today was a quadruple witching options expiration ($4.7T worth), with 85% of those options expiring on the open. In the overnight session, U.S. stock index futures were red, but did pare some losses ahead of the bell. FedEx guided lower for the 3rd consecutive quarter, sending shares -7% lower after hours. The ES and NQ were red early, but ended in the black.

The Shanghai index lost -0.5%, the Hang Seng sank -2.2%, and the Nikkei 225 fell -0.3%. As expected, the BoE held rates at 4.5%. The DAX lost -1.1%, the Stoxx 600 fell -0.4%, the FTSE 100 was flat. 10-year Bund yields are 2.785%. For the week of March 15, Initial Jobless Claims were 223K (221K prior) vs. 225K est. (near multi-decade lows). The March Philly Fed Mfg. Index declined from 18.1 prior to 12.5, vs. 11.5 est. The Q4 Current Account went from $-310.3B to $-303.9B vs. exp. of $-330.3B. Existing Home Sales for Feb. surged the most in a year, from -4.7% to +4.2% (annualized 4.090M to 4.260M). Feb. Leading Economic Indicators printed at -0.3% (from -0.2%) vs. -0.2% est. The Fed Balance Sheet for the week of 3/19 went from $6.760T to Total Assets of $2.807B and Credit of $1.362B. 10-year T-Notes yield 4.233%. The June US$ index increased +0.35% to 103.160. May crude oil jumped +2.0% to $68.26. April gold hit another record intraday high, ending up +0.4% at $3,053.20. Pres. Trump is urging the Fed to cut rates as tariffs transition into the economy (see Looking Ahead). After yesterday’s “dovish pause”, U.S. stock index futures printed strong gains. Overnight the post-Fed surge vanished, with the ES -40 points lower, but after the open prices immediately ran upwards going solidly positive. Then, just as quickly they went red again at midday and closed negative.

The BoJ left policy unchanged. The Shanghai index slipped -0.1%, the Hang Seng was up fractionally by +0.1%, and the Nikkei 225 fell -0.3%. Turkish Pres. Erdogan may block his top political challenger, and the Lira sank to a record low. The DAX pulled back -0.3%, the Stoxx 600 gained +0.3%, the FTSE 100 inched ahead +0.1%. 10-year Bund yields are 2.800%. For the week of March 14, MBA Mortgage Applications as per the Composite Index sank from 11.2% prior to -6.2%. Crude Oil Inventories ticked higher from 1.4M bbls to 1.7M bbls. The March Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations printed up from 2.3% YoY to 2.5%. As expected, the Fed announced no change in the target federal funds rate range of 4.5% - 4.75%, and they also issued a Statement that can be seen as recognizing a stagflation threat (see Looking Ahead). 10-year T-Notes yield 4.260%. The June US$ index increased +0.26% to 103.160. May crude oil gained +0.4% to $67.03. April gold hit a record intraday high and closed nearly even at $3,041.20. Russian Pres. Putin agreed not to attack Ukrainian energy facilities, yet Ukraine apparently struck a Russian energy target, and OPEC plans output increases. The major U.S. stock index futures were stronger overnight and into the day. After the Fed decision and Powell’s presser, stocks persistently ramped upwards to end firmly positive.