China continues promising to increase economic stimulus. The Shanghai index inched up +0.15%, the Hang Seng bounced +0.41% and the Nikkei 225 slid -0.60%. The EU won’t lift sanctions on Russia in exchange for a Black Sea ceasefire. The DAX retreated -0.70%, the Stoxx 600 lost -0.44%, the FTSE 100 fell -0.27%. 10-year Bund yields are 2.778%. The final Q4 U.S. GDP revision was as expected at +2.4% from +2.3% prior. Personal Consumption Expenditures fell from +4.2% to +4.0% (YoY) vs. +4.2% est. Feb. Intl Trade in Goods (advance) went from $-155.6B to $-147.9B vs. $-135.5B est. For the week of 3/22 Initial Jobless Claims were flat at 224K as exp. The Feb. Pending Home Sales Index (see Looking Ahead) went from -4.6% MoM to +2.0% vs. +2.9% est. (falling to -7.2% YoY), with the Index increasing from 70.6 to 72.0. The March KC Fed Mfg. Index went from -5 to -2. 10-year T-Notes yield 4.370%. The June US$ index faded -0.25% to 103.950. May crude oil hit a new 3-week high, finishing up +0.23% at $69.81. April gold hit another record high (BoA and GS raised price targets, with GS at $4,500/oz.), gaining +1.5% to $3,069.00. Wednesday’s auto tariff-driven sell-off abated (see Looking Ahead), and U.S. stock index futures opened nearly unchanged. During the day prices were both sides of even with the ES closing red.

The Shanghai index was flat, the Hang Seng recovered +0.60% and the Nikkei 225 gained +0.65%. The DAX retreated -1.17%, the Stoxx 600 lost -0.70%, the FTSE 100 was higher by +0.30%. 10-year Bund yields are 2.800%. For the Week of 3/21 the MBA Mortgage Applications Composite Index gained from a prior level of -6.2% to -2.0%, and the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed Crude Oil Inventories declining from +1.7M bbls to -3.3M bbls. February Durable Goods Orders went from +3.3% prior to +0.9% (vs. -1.0% consensus), now near record highs. Core Durable Goods (Ex-transportation) went from +0.1% to +0.7% vs. +0.3% consensus). Today’s $70B 5-Yr Note auction found solid demand with a high yield of 4.100%, down from 4.123% in February. 10-year T-Notes yield 4.352%. The June US$ index added +0.4% to 104.580. Russia claims Ukraine is striking energy sites in violation of cease-fire agreements. Russia says Ukraine is breaking an agreement and still striking their energy sites. May crude oil hit a new 3-week high, and ending stronger by +1.0% at $69.70. April gold was near unchanged at $3,022.20. In the last 24 hours Bitcoin sold off -1.5% to $86,594. Stocks started out near even then began to slide. The WH confirmed auto tariffs will be announced at the close today and stocks went deeper red.

The Shanghai index was flat, the Hang Seng plunged -2.35% (the Tech Index sank -3.8% and is off -10% from the March 18 high, yet still up +23% YTD), and the Nikkei 225 gained +0.46%. The DAX was up a strong +1.13%, the Stoxx 600 added +0.67%, the FTSE 100 was +0.30% higher. 10-year Bund yields are 2.801%. The Jan. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-City Adjusted) grew +0.5% MoM vs. +0.4% est. (20-City Unadjusted YoY was up to +4.7%), with home prices at record highs. The January FHFA House Price Index fell MoM from +0.4% to +0.2%, with YoY going from +4.7% to +4.8%. Mar. Consumer Confidence (see Looking Ahead) sank from 100.1 to 92.9 (4-yr low), below est. of 94.2. Feb. New Home Sales improved from 657K to 676K (up +1.8%) vs. 679K est. The Mar. Richmond Fed Mfg. Index sank from +6 to -4.0 vs. +5.0 exp. 10-year T-Notes yield 4.341%. The June US$ index slid -0.1% to 103.850. Russia claims Ukraine is striking energy sites in violation of cease-fire agreements. May crude oil was flat at $69.12. April gold gained +0.3% to $3,025.10. Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler and NY Fed Pres. John Williams spoke today, issuing no surprises. Ukarine and Russia have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire at sea. The Trump admin is considering a 2-step approach to tariff implementation. Stocks were choppy but mostly higher, ending the day modestly positive.