Daily Comments

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The March S&P 500 gained 0.39% on Tuesday, settling @ 7008.50. Lower Bollinger band support is 6862. Upper Bollinger band resistance is 7044. Option dealer gamma remains in positive mode as of Tuesday’s close. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically buy weakness and sell strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook Wednesday is a newsy day between the FOMC decision (no change expected) during the trading session and large-cap tech earnings after the close (Tesla, IBM, META, Microsoft). For now, Hedgeye’s bullish Quad 1 regimes implies the market’s path of least resistance remains pointed higher, especially for the small-cap Russell 2000. This week’s notable earnings reports include: • Wednesday – Tesla, IBM, META, Microsoft • Thursday – Apple • Friday – Exxon, Chevron According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing an 2.8% probability that the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps on January 28.


Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The March S&P 500 added 0.51% on Monday, settling @ 6981.25. Lower Bollinger band support is 6863. Upper Bollinger band resistance is 7038. Option dealer gamma flipped back to positive mode as of Monday’s close. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers mechanically buy weakness and sell strength to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook This week’s notable earnings reports include: • Tuesday – Boeing • Wednesday – Tesla, IBM, META, Microsoft • Thursday – Apple • Friday – Exxon, Chevron According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing an 2.8% probability that the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps on January 28.


Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The March S&P 500 added +0.50% on Thursday, settling @ 6945.00. Lower Bollinger band support is 6864. Upper Bollinger band resistance is 7041. Option dealer gamma remains in negative mode as of Thursday’s close. When option dealer gamma is negative, option dealers mechanically sell weakness and buy strength to hedge their exposure. Negative gamma for option dealers increases the odds of HIGHER realized volatility and LARGER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook Large-cap tech is struggling as investors rotate to other sectors which have lagged behind the big names in recent years. As you can see from the charts above, the small-cap Russell 2000 has benefitted greatly from a broadening stock market rally. For the S&P 500, the conflicting price action between sectors has led to sideways/higher choppy price action, ideal for our dragonfly strategy. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing an 5.0% probability that the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps on January 28.