Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 remain in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The September S&P 500 rallied +0.34% on Wednesday, settling @ 6457.25. Upper Bollinger band resistance is 6534. Lower Bollinger band support is 6362. According to Tier1 Alpha, option dealer gamma remains in positive territory as of Wednesday’s close. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers sell strength and buy weakness to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook US equities are likely rangebound until we see Friday’s August jobs numbers. We have no expectation for Friday, but Wall Street consensus expectations are for +150,000 jobs added in August. Predicting the made-up jobs number is a pure guessing game, but people still do it. Naturally, a 150,000 expectation may be an artificially high number when considering the dismal July numbers. A miss on the jobs number would be considered dovish for the Fed and potentially bullish for equities in the very short run. A number > 150k may be considered hawkish. More importantly, before the FOMC announcement on the 17th , we get the PPI report on the 10th and the CPI report on the 11th . Hedgeye’s August CPI forecast is for an acceleration to 2.83% YoY. It is rare to see the Fed cutting rates as inflation accelerates without being in a recession. Hedgeye is not forecasting a recession, therefore a September 17 rate cut is likely to be a one and done cut… until we get a new Fed Chairman in May 2026. In our opinion, the CPI report has the potential to rattle equity and bond markets ahead of the FOMC meeting on the 17th . Market structure issues with option dealers and systematic strategies give us pause as the fuel for a volatility spike is there on a hard close below 6400. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a rate cut by the September 17 FOMC meeting are now 95.6%

Market Outlook September is shaping up to be a tricky month for bulls. Bullish tailwinds from systematic strategies are waning as vol control funds and CTA allocations to equities are near 5-year highs. If volatility increases from here, vol control funds and CTAs could easily flip to selling equities. The S&P 500 fell into negative gamma on an intraday basis on Tuesday, but managed to rally into the close which pulled the S&P 500 out of the danger zone. In negative gamma, option dealers must sell weakness to maintain a neutral hedge on their option book, so an increase in realized volatility in the weeks ahead could force simultaneous selling from systematic strategies and option dealers. Another complicating factor for bulls is that there appears to be a sector rotation occurring away from large-cap growth stocks to small-caps. That is why the Russell 2000 has been outperforming the Nasdaq 100 in recent weeks. If the AI bubble corrects, the trend of small-caps outperforming large-cap growth stocks could easily continue for a few more months. US equity markets have a lot to navigate over the next 3 weeks. On Friday, September 5, we get the August jobs report. Another weak jobs report would likely seal the deal for a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17. However, before the FOMC announcement on the 17th, we get the PPI report on the 10th and the CPI report on the 11th. It is rare to see the Fed cutting rates as inflation accelerates without being in a recession. A September 17 rate cut is likely to be a one and done cut… until we get a new Fed Chairman in May 2026. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a rate cut by the September 17 FOMC meeting are now 91.6%.

Technical Indicator Summary Daily RSIs for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 remain in neutral territory (>30 and <70). Technical Review The September S&P 500 slipped -0.69% on Friday, settling @ 6472.75. Upper Bollinger band resistance is 6545. Lower Bollinger band support is 6330. According to Tier1 Alpha, option dealer gamma remains in positive territory as of Friday’s close. When option dealer gamma is positive, option dealers sell strength and buy weakness to hedge their exposure. Positive gamma for option dealers increases the odds of LOWER realized volatility and SMALLER percentage moves up or down from one day to the next. Market Outlook Bullish tailwinds from vol control funds and option dealers were unable to overcome the effect of a -3.36% drop in NVDA shares on Friday. NVDA’s market cap is approximately 7.9% of the S&P 500, a record high weighting for any company in S&P 500 history. Early headlines on Friday say that Chinese conglomerate Alibaba is launching a new AI chip to replace NVDA. We don’t know if Friday’s pullback is the beginning of the pullback that we are looking for in September, but it could be! Tactically, if we get a correction into mid-September, sometime after the CPI report, that may be a great buying opportunity for the next 6 months or so. The US macro forecast steadily improves from now through at least April 2026. So, for now at least, the longer-run setup is very bullish for US equities, especially for the small-cap Russell 2000 which just emerged from a brutal earnings recession. According to Hedgeye research, the Russell 2000 is still a huge consensus net short position in the hedge fund community. US equity markets have a lot to navigate over the next 3 weeks. On Friday, September 5, we get the August jobs report. Another weak jobs report would likely seal the deal for a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17. However, before the FOMC announcement on the 17th, we get the PPI report on the 10th and the CPI report on the 11th. Hedgeye’s August CPI forecast is for an acceleration to 2.83% YoY. It is rare to see the Fed cutting rates as inflation accelerates without being in a Altavest’s follows Hedgeye’s macroeconomic research as well as data from Hedgeye’s partner firm, Tier1 Alpha. If you need a primer on the Hedgeye process and an explanation of the Hedgeye GIP (Growth Inflation Policy) Quad model, CLICK HERE for a 14-minute video tutorial. We also highly recommend SUBSCRIBING to Hedgeye’s services (including Tier1 Alpha) so that you can better understand our ThetaTrader Trade Alerts. More importantly, we believe Hedgeye’s affordable subscription services can be a great benefit to any individual investor’s overall investment portfolio. recession. Hedgeye is not forecasting a recession, therefore a September 17 rate cut is likely to be a one and done cut… until we get a new Fed Chairman in 2026. All US markets are closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a rate cut by the September 17 FOMC meeting are now 86.9%.