The Chinese yuan has now weakened more than -2% since the U.S. elections and is expected to weaken further in 2025. South Korea declared emergency military control/martial-law, with the Pres. citing threats from communist N. Korea as well as domestic threats from the S. Korean parliament. Shares of South Korean ETF’s fell more than -5.0%. The Nikkei 225 jumped +1.91% and the Shanghai Composite rose +0.44%. European markets were positive. French vs. German bond yields spreads hit a 12-yr high on concerns of a French govt. failure. The DAX Index gained +0.42%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.060%. November Motor Vehicle Sales were scheduled for today but were not available as of this writing. October JOLTS (Job Openings) increased from 7.443M to 7.744M (up +372K, most in 14 mos.) and beyond consensus of 7.490M, and Quits jumped from 3.098M to 3.326M (up +228K and most since May 2023). 10-Yr Notes yield 4.221%. The December US$ Index drifted -0.11% lower to 106.310. January Crude surged +1.9% to $69.38. February Gold gained +0.29% to $2,666.10. Federal Reserve officials Kugler and Goolsbee spoke today. Ahead of the day-session U.S. stock index futures were initially lower but eventually printed marginally. The day session saw big tech push the NQ and ES to close at all-time highs.

Much like in the U.S., this week will feature major economic reports from Japan, South Korea, and China. The Nikkei 225 rose +0.80% while the Shanghai Composite climbed +1.13%. European markets were mixed. On the bank of political turmoil and gridlock, French stocks initially pulled back but recovered just above unchanged, and the DAX Index jumped +1.57%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.036%. October Construction Spending jumped from +0.1% prior to +0.4%, double the expected print of +0.2%. The November ISM Mfg Index improved to 48.4 vs. 47.6 expected, and the final S&P Global Mfg PMI edged up to 49.7 (best since June) vs. 48.8 est., yet below 50 and in contraction territory. 10-Yr Notes yield 4.194%. Pres.-elect Trump is pressuring the BRICS to drop their pursuit of a non-US$ currency. The December US$ Index gained +0.53% to 106.385. January Crude inched +0.2% higher to $68.10. February Gold fell -0.84% to $2,658.50. Overnight, U.S. stock index futures were modestly weaker but recovered to near unchanged ahead of the open. Early data reports that U.S. Black Friday retail sales grew at a stronger pace vs. last year. SMCI shares soared +20% on a report indicating no accounting fraud. Fed Gov. Waller still supports a rate cut this month. The ES closed at a record high, with the NQ near a record.

China’s industrial profits in October were down -10% from the year earlier. The Nikkei 225 was down -0.80%, the Shanghai Composite rose +1.53%. European markets were mixed. The DAX Index drifted lower -0.18%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.164%. For the week of 11/23 the MBA Mtge Apps Index printed +6.3% (from +1.7% prior), Initial Claims dipped to 213K (lowest since 4/24) vs. 217K est., EIA Crude Inventories sank -1.8M bbls. Revised Q3 GDP held at +2.8% YoY and PCE gained +3.5% YoY vs. +3.7% est. Oct. Durable Goods Orders rose +0.2% (ex-trans +0.1% vs. +0.2% est.) vs. +0.5% est., Personal Income was up +0.6% vs. +0.3% est., Personal Income Expenditures were up +0.4% as est., the PCE Price Index gained +0.2% as est., (YoY up from +2.1% to +2.3% as est.) with Core PCE (Fed’s preferred indicator?) printing up +0.3% as est. and largest gain since March (YoY up +2.8% to a 6-mo high) and the Pending Home Sales Index printed at 77.4 up +2.0% vs. -1.8% est. In advance data, the Intl. Trade in Goods deficit narrowed to $-99.1B vs. -$104.5B est., Retail Inventories were up +0.1%, Wholesale Inventories were up +0.2%. Nov. Chicago PMI printed at 40.2 vs. 44.2 est. 10-Yr Notes yield 4.264%, the $44B 7-yr Note auction found solid demand. The Dec. US$ Index sank -0.88% to 106.025. Jan. Crude was near even at $68.78. Feb. Gold gained +0.64% to $2,662.60. In thin volume equity indexes traded lower all day.