Pres. Trump didn’t announce new Asia-based tariffs yet. The Shanghai Index faded -0.05%, the Hang Seng added +0.91%, the Nikkei 225 gained +0.32%. The Stoxx 600 gained +0.40% and the DAX index tacked on +0.25%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.513%. 10-Yr Note yield fell to a 2025 low of 4.573%. The March US$ index sank -1.3% to 107.835 on speculation re Trump admin tariffs. On chants of “drill, baby drill” from Pres. Trump, March Crude lost -1.7% to $76.06. Feb Gold edged up +0.25% to $2,755.60. The SEC said it will launch a crypto task force, Bitcoin rallied +3.4% to $107,125. Pres. Trump has signed multiple Executive Orders. He’s continuing to tout tariffs, suggesting 25% rates on Canada and Mexico beginning Feb. 1, yet holding off on immediate Chinese tariffs. GS says the tone on tariffs is more benign, and the odds of a universal tariff are lower, with JPM saying it’s a more “cautious view on tariff implementation.” The admin also kept TikTok running with a 75-day reprieve to sell itself. Overnight, US stock index futures rallied yet AAPL lost nearly -4% on news that China iPhone sales sank -18% in December, with Jefferies cutting its rating. Early gains in CAT, MMM, BA elevated the YM, yet the NQ and ES were initially quiet. However, big tech soon surged (Trump admin. announced major “Stargate” AI investments), and all indices closed confidently higher.

China’s GDP grew +5.0% in 2024, and +5.4% YoY in Q4, the fastest in six quarters. The Shanghai Index gained +0.18%, the Hang Seng added +0.31%, and the Nikkei 225 slumped -0.31%. The Stoxx 600 gained +0.69% (strongest week since Sep) and the DAX index soared +1.20%. 10-year Bund yields fell to 2.531%. Dec Housing Starts soared from 1.289M to 1.499M (biggest jump since 2016), vs. est. of 1.320M, and Permits went from 1.505M down to 1.483M, above est. of 1.458M. Dec Industrial Prod. jumped from -0.1% prior to +0.9%, well above consensus. Mfg. printed at +0.6% vs. +0.4% expected, with Capacity Utilization at 77.6%, slightly beating 77.0% est. 10-Yr Note yields 4.610%. The March US$ fell -0.09% to 108.820. March Crude lost -0.53% to $77.44. Feb Gold slipped -0.42% to $2,739.40. In 24 hours, Bitcoin ranged from $99,403 to $105,915. The US Supreme Court upheld a law that could soon lead to a ban on TikTok in the US. A deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza appears imminent. Fed Gov. Waller appears open to a rate cut in March, adding 3 or 4 cuts in 2025 were possible. Mag 7 stocks recovered pre-market and lifted U.S. stock index futures. During the day indexes continued upwards and remained elevated, all closing firmly stronger.

A major supplier to NVDA, Taiwan’s SMCI reported a surge in profits and shares rallied. The Shanghai Index gained +0.28%, the Hang Seng jumped +1.23%, and the Nikkei 225 added +0.33%. The Stoxx 600 gained +0.98%, and the DAX index added +0.39%. 10-year Bund yields fell to 2.548%. For the week of 1/10, Initial Claims went from 201K to 217K, vs. 212K exp. Continuing Claims fell from 1.877M to 1.859M. December Retail Sales went from +0.7% to +0.4%, just below consensus of +0.5%. The January Philly Fed Mfg. Index surged from -16.4 to 44.3, way beyond -7.0 est. December Import prices gained +0.1% vs. -0.1% est. (YoY up +2.2%), and exports added +0.3% vs. +0.1% est. (up +1.8% YoY). Business Inventories for November were as expected at +0.1%. The January Housing Market Index ticked up 1 to 47 vs. 46 est. 10-Yr Note yields 4.606%. Incoming Treas. Sec. Bessent said we “must ensure that the U.S. dollar remains the world’s currency.” The March US$ fell -0.09% to 108.820. Feb Crude lost -1.7% to $78.70. Feb Gold gained +1.1% to $2,747.00. The latest bank earnings from BAC and MS saw increases in revenue, but their stocks were mixed, and UNH fell on a revenue miss. Indexes posted gains overnight but began to slump early after the open. In choppy action, bulls offered fights along the way, but a late session sell off in tech dragged the ES and NQ to session lows to end red.