Alibaba soared +14%. China tech hit its highest since 2022. The Shanghai gained +0.85%, the Hang Seng soared +4.0%. Japanese inflation hit a 2-yr high of +4.0% YoY. The Nikkei 225 added +0.26%. The Stoxx Europe 600 added +0.5% (its 9th consecutive weekly gain), ahead of Germany’s (w/zero GDP growth the last 5 yrs) weekend election the DAX dipped -0.12%, and the FTSE 100 war near flat. 10-year Bunds yield 2.474%. The Feb. PMI Composite Index (flash) fell from 52.7 to 50.4, Mfg. gained from 51.2 to 51.6 vs. 51.3 est., and Services declined from 52.9 to 49.7 (1st time in contraction since Jan. 2023) vs. 53.0 est. Jan. Existing Home Sales plunged from 4.29M to 4.08M, below 4.16M est., MoM sank from +2.9% to -4.9%, and YoY was +4.8%, down from +5.8%. Feb. Consumer Sentiment (final) fell from 67.8 to 64.7, and Year-ahead Inflation Expectations held at +4.3%, with medium-term expectations jumping to +3.5% (highest since 4/95). 10-year T-Note yields dipped to 4.432%. The March US$ index added +0.26% to 106.545. March Crude Oil sank -3.2% to $70.22. April Gold closed in the red by -0.25% at $2,948.50. After the bell stocks immediately began to decline. A midsession headline re another coronavirus in China drove stocks to fresh lows, and indexes closed deeply negative. Goldman estimates that $2.7T in options expired today.

The Shanghai Composite was flat, the Hang Seng Index sank -1.6%. A hawkish BoJ has seen the Yen and Japanese Govt. Bond Yields (highest since 2008) strengthen. The Nikkei 225 index fell -1.24%. UK inflation hit a 10-mo high. ECB official Schnabel said the bank should discuss ending its rate-cut efforts. The Stoxx Europe 600 lost -0.20%, the DAX sank -0.53%, and the FTSE 100 fell -0.57%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.539%. For the week of 2/15, Initial Jobless Claims printed at 219K, up from 213K prior, and a shade higher than 215K expected. The February Philly Fed Mfg. Index sank from 44.3 prior to 18.1, below consensus of 22.7. January Leading Indicators worsened from -0.1% to -0.3% vs. est. of 0.0%. 10-year T-Note yields dipped to 4.498%. The March US$ index added +0.1% to 107.055. For the week of 2/14, Crude Oil Inventories increased from 4.1M bbls 4.6M bbls. March Crude Oil gained +0.4% to $72.53. April Gold was up +0.5% to a record $2,951.40 (30-day inverse US$ correlation of -0.76). The CRB Index is up nearly +8.0% YTD. In the last 24 hours Bitcoin gained +2.1% to $98,380. Concerns of trade tariffs and deep cuts to govt. spending made markets nervous. Shares of Walmart, Boeing, Tesla, Palantir, retreated. St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem noted economic stagflation is possible (see Looking Ahead). Equities were red all day but closed off session lows.

The Shanghai Composite recovered +0.81%, the Hang Seng Index dipped -0.14%, the Nikkei 225 index retreated -0.27% UK inflation hit a 10-mo high. ECB official Schnabel said the bank should discuss ending its rate-cut efforts. The Stoxx Europe 600 lost -0.91%, the DAX sank -1.80%, and the FTSE 100 fell -0.62%. 10-year Bunds yield 2.560%. Jan. Housing Starts were 1.366M, plunging -9.8% MoM (largest drop since March 2024), vs. -7.3% est. Permits ticked higher by +0.1% (now at 1.483M), vs. -1.5% exp. For the week of 2/14, MBA Mortgage Apps fell by -6.6%. Feb. Atlanta Fed Bus. Inflation Expectations increased from +2.2% YoY to +2.3%. The Jan FOMC meeting Minutes indicated a “few” officials don’t see much room for rate cuts. Today’s 20-Yr T-Bond auction was soft. 10-year T-Note yields dipped to 4.535%. The March US$ index added +0.1% to 107.055. March Crude Oil gained +0.8% to $72.41. April Gold was nudged up +0.07% to $2,951.40. In the last 24 hours Bitcoin gained +2.2% to $96,315. Pre-market, Pres. Trump suggested 25% tariffs on Pharma and Autos after April 1 and U.S. stock index futures went red. SMCI rallied on aggressive guidance. MSFT unveiled a new quantum computing chip called “Majorana 1”, w/related tech shares rallying. The ES was modestly higher at the close, edging in on a fresh record high.