Daily Comments

China August industrial production rose +4.4% y/y, the slowest pace in over 17 years. Asian markets were mixed. The Shanghai Composite was off a very modest -0.02%. The Nikkei 225 was closed for a holiday. In a meeting with EC head Juncker, UK Prime Minister Johnson was told it was up to his government to offer a solution for Brexit. European markets closed lower. The DAX fell -0.71%. Yields on 10-yr. Bunds eased to -0.474%. The September Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell below consensus expectations but was still positive at +2.0. Yields on 10-Year Notes pulled back to 1.843%. The December US$ Index jumped +0.400 to 98.280. December gold moved up +0.8% to $1,511.50. Following the biggest ever disruption to oil supplies, October crude spiked up +14.7% to $62.90. Although the attacks on Saudi Arabia shook markets overnight, heavy losses had moderated by the U.S. open and kept moderating in early trade. For the rest of the day, buyers and sellers fought to a standoff trading modestly lower and still just below all-time highs. Although small-caps managed more gains, other averages were lower.

President Trump left open the door for a limited trade deal with China. China has waived new tariffs on U.S. soybeans and pork. Asian markets closed higher. The Nikkei 225 rose +1.05%. The Shanghai Composite was closed for a holiday. The euro zone’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record high in August. European markets finished higher. The DAX rose +0.47%. Yields on 10-yr. Bunds rose to -0.453%. July Business Inventories were up +0.4%. August Retail Sales were a strong +0.4% (ex-autos +0.0%, Import Prices fell -0.5%, and Export Prices fell -0.6%. Preliminary September Consumer Sentiment improved to 92.0. Baker-Hughes reported that the U.S. oil rig count for 09/06 fell again, down 5 to 733. Yields on 10-Year Notes rose to 1.899%. The December US$ Index eased -0.045 to 97.830. December gold fell -0.5% to $1,499.50. October crude lost -0.4% to $54.85. Equities began the day in the green. Tech weakness meant the Nasdaq 100 was modestly lower while other averages consolidated this week’s gains. A late push lower didn’t rattle buyers who stemmed the losses. At the close, markets were narrowly mixed.

President Trump announced a 2-week delay in the implementation of the tariff increases scheduled for October 1. Asian markets closed higher. The Nikkei 225 rose +0.75% and the Shanghai Composite added +0.75% as well. The ECB lowered deposit rates from -0.4% to -0.5%. The overall package was deemed dovish. European markets finished higher. The DAX rose +0.41%. Despite moves by the ECB, yields on 10-yr. Bunds fell for again, closing at -0.539%. Initial Claims for 09/06 slipped to 204K. August CPI rose +0.1% (ex-food and energy +0.3% and +2.4% y/y). The August Treasury Budget deficit was -$200.3B. Yields on 10-Year Notes finished up at 1.782%. The December US$ Index fell -0.300 to 97.875. December gold rose +0.3% to $1,507.40. October crude lost another -1.2% to $55.09. Overnight equities jumped on the President’s announcement. After a solid open, averages gave back the early gains before steadying. A headline on a longer term trade peace sent markets back to the highs, followed by a denial sending markets back down. Bulls then took control and averages traded steadily higher. Even with a late fade, markets are less than 1.0% from all-time highs.